2007: Year in Review or, The State of the Mets

The year 2007 can't really be chalked up as anything more than a huge disappointment for fans of the New York Metropolitans. Our team followed up a breakthrough season with a big step back, we enter 2008 with more questions than reliable starting pitchers, and it generally remains to be seen whether or not the sustained period of long-term success the Mets looked like they were set to enter at the beginning of 2007 will turn out to be nothing more than a sick illusion.

For all the good vibes coming out of the 2006 season, it's not as if the year 2007 got off to a particularly good start. After we lost out on Barry Zito to an unreasonably large contract offer from the San Francisco Giants - which this blogger is happy we didn't match - we spent January, February, and March hearing about how unstable our starting rotation was and how much Jimmy Rollins was going to completely own us this season.

In the end, I guess those predictions may have ended up being pretty accurate.

After a horrid spring training, though, 2007 the season did get off to a good start. We swept the Cardinals, in St. Louis. Jimmy Rollins booted an easy groundball to spark a comeback rally in our home opener. John Maine and Oliver Perez made the Cards and Braves look silly in their respective debuts. If the 2007 season had been a video game, the night we boosted our record to 4-0 would have been a good time to hit SIM and let the computer take care of the rest.

Unfortunately, autopilot doesn't work in real baseball, and after the Mets - already "bored," perhaps - hit cruise control, in real life that first Friday night in April was probably the high point of 2007.

This season, and this year, were underwhelming in just about every way. We didn't have Zito. The crowd at Shea sucked. Jose Reyes wasn't as good as he was in 2006. After we outscored the Cardinals and Braves by a combined 31-3 in those first four games and it looked like we might be in for a special season, the next 158 games were a story of failed sweeps and wasted momentum, blown opportunities and not a single winning streak longer than four games until the beginning of that fateful month of September. So far this offseason, we've heard about Dan Haren, Erik Bedard, and Johan Santana, but we never had a chance for Haren or Bedard and we'll be extremely lucky if lightning somehow strikes and we get Santana.

It's hard to know what to expect from the year 2008. On the one hand, we bring back a still-talented roster that will include Wright and Reyes, Pedro, Maine and Perez, Carlos Beltran and Billy Wagner. In a perfect world we'll have a hungry team, determined to right the wrongs of 2007, that will scratch and claw its way back to the top of the division. The fans that show up at Shea next season, 20% more expensive tickets in tow, will rabidly usher the old ballpark out in style.

On the other hand, we're crossing our fingers praying for the health of Pedro's rebuilt arm over a full season. We're nervously hedging our bets on two somewhat-unstable young pitchers to do what they did last year. We're hoping that the end of 2007 was mostly an aberration for Jose Reyes. Likewise with Carlos Delgado. This will a season of reckoning for Willie Randolph and Omar Minaya.


So we'll see. 2007 was not a good year in Mets history. We had some exciting moments, some good wins, but ultimately we couldn't sustain anything good and any positives were overshadowed in the overall narrative by the collapse.

And in the first few months of 2008, things aren't likely to look any better. The trade/free agent market probably won't yield anything better than Bartolo Colon. We'll be picked to finish either second or third in the NL East next season, and won't stop hearing about how far we've fallen in the last year.

But keep things in perspective. Remember the fact that three years ago at this time, the Mets hadn't had a winning season in 3 years. We had just ushered out the Art Howe era. We had just traded Scott Kazmir. Now, we enter a new year where we'd be defending consecutive division titles if we hadn't gift-wrapped the East for the Phillies last September. We've got some question marks, but overall, even without any more roster moves, we're at least in pretty decent shape. David Wright, David Wright, Citi Field, David Wright.

In a year where it will take 11 months for America to choose a new President, it will be close to that long before we have a sincere read on the true state of the Mets. Viva 2008!

Happy New Year

(Pictures courtesy nytimes.com, nycvp.com, flikr.com)

Ticket Prices, Transactions, T Shirts

Isn't it amazing? The season ends and we fans wait patiently for the hot stove to start heating up, only to tire very quickly when it feels like all the rumbling, grumblings, and rumors never actually come to fruition but are still reported and rehashed all the way to spring training. This year's Winter Meetings came and went, nothing happened, the Mets still don't have attractive prospects, or an ace pitcher. Bo-ring.


If you trusted new ticket prices as an indicator of offseason activity, though, you might swear that the Mets had found a way to acquire both Johan Santana and Erik Bedard in a three way trade while collectively giving up only Jorge Sosa, a personalized brick at CitiField, the choreography to a Jose Reyes home run dance, and 3 fungo bats.

I'm referring, of course, to the 20% increase in 2008 Shea Stadium ticket prices, announced by the Mets last week. Dave Howard, Mets' executive vice president of business operations, on the increase:

“We considered where we were in the marketplace. Our average ticket price is still the lowest among the nine major pro sports teams in the New York area. Our payroll is among the highest in baseball. We put our resources back into the team.”

Everyone else is doing it, and look, look, we just got Matt Wise!

So despite a collapse of epic proportions and marginal improvement (depending on how you see the Milledge trade, really) to the ballclub this winter, the Mets can still justify raising prices, further forcing the average fan and middle income family to watch from home.

Metsblog has a post today pointing out that at least 12 other teams are raising ticket prices by at least 15 percent for next year. So this seems like an across-the-board type thing, which is an excellent justification for the Mets raising ticket prices for 2008 in the face of an ugly 2007.

Everyone else is doing it!

Or it's just another depressing indictment of the power of money in sports right now. Sports has become such an enterprise, ESPN such a caricature of itself, that the Mets 5-year business model says it makes sense to raise prices this year, despite the fact in a real, ethical world still guided by a sense of right and wrong it's like rubbing salt on the still-open wounds of most Mets fans.

And Major League Baseball can continue making money out the wazoo while half of it's other teams raise their ticket prices, despite the fact that in a real, ethical world guided by a sense of right and wrong baseball should have it's tail much further between its legs in the wake of an investigative report that just named more than 60 of its current and former players as users of performance-enhancing drugs while also speaking to its own culpability in this whole mess.


There is no level-headed reasoning here. Raising ticket prices on Mets fans next year just isn't right. At least we'll be ready for CitiField.

***

20%, incidentally, is also the percentage of money I took home after fellow Knicks die-hard Ivan Cash and I stood outside Madison Square Garden Wednesday night selling t-shirts with a sound, socially-conscious message for the holidays:


Admittedly, the Knicks are my third team in New York. But it's a strong third. Watching fans pour in and out of Madison Square Garden on Wednesday - to watch a horrible team - only served as a strong reaffirmation that there's nothing in New York quite like when the Knicks are good. That underdog finals run in '99 remains at the top of my list of most cherished sports memories.

So Ivan and I stood outside the Garden, voices hoarse from shouting "love the franchise, hate the coach...with a hand-crafted, original t-shirt!," among other sales pitches, all in our own for-profit attempt to build further outrage toward the mess that is the New York Knickerbockers.

Ivan designed and printed these shirts himself, and at $20 apiece we sold all 30 shirts that we brought with us. It was a pretty good night. Even fans who didn't want a hand-crafted, original t-shirt signaled their support. ABC eyewitness news, CW11 news at 10, NBC, and a freelance writer for the New York Times all asked what brought us out to the main entrance of Madison Square Garden to voice our opposition to Isiah Thomas and the Knick regime.

Bad move after bad move, no defense, sexual harrassment, a franchise in disarray, no end in sight. That's what.

Earlier Wednesday, dozens of other fans gathered outside MSG to protest the state of the Knicks and sign a giant pink slip for Isiah, which also received attention from the local network news media. So perhaps "FI-RE I-SI-AH!" is finally reaching a critical mass.

We can only hope. In the meantime, hate the coach.

(Images courtesy sayhey.files.wordpress.com, cnn.com, ivancash.com)

Sell the Farm?

If a Johan Santana-to-the-Mets deal actually ends up going down, it will probably look a little something like this:

BLOCKBUSTER TRADE

Mets get - Johan Santana
Twins get - Entire Mets farm system

Alas, the great dilemma. And upon hearing the news that other teams do actually think highly of their team's prospects - one in particular who happens to be looking to trade a 28-year old 2-time Cy Young award winner - Mets fans are tied in all sorts of knots and aren't quite sure what to think.

Yes, the Twins like our prospects. They like them so much that they're demanding at least 5, it looks like, in return for their ace pitcher. Metsblog added the following tidbit this afternoon, via Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated:

‘The Mets offered different packages of prospects that included either outfielder Carlos Gomez or outfield prospect Fernando Martinez but not both, declining to include the one extra prospect the Twins requested to clinch the deal according to people familiar with those talks.’

With a package including only Gomez, the Twins reportedly want 4 pitchers. No word on specific players, but you can bet that the four would most likely consist of the Twins' choice between Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Joe Smith, Aaron Heilman, and Deolis Guerra.

Essentially, it looks like we either give up both of our remaining outfield prospects, or 65% of our young pitchers of value who are anywhere near being major-league ready. It's a decision to make.

Which is why I'm not screaming at Omar Minaya for not getting this deal done. I think that if this trade is possible, it needs to be made and we need to give Johan Santana every dollar that he requests, but there's a big decision to make here that's not necessarily easy.

Imagine a core for the foreseeable future of Santana, John Maine, and Oliver Perez in the starting rotation, with David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran in the everyday lineup. That's only a hair over 1/5 of a full team, but it's a pretty formidable core. That's the type of core that, filling the blanks in with people who need only be able to throw and catch, pretty much makes you good no matter what. Think this year's Boston Celtics.

And we're 5/6 of the way there. But Santana's a pretty key part of that equation.

On the flipside, what happens if we need a 5th starter at any point this season. It's Lima time, baby!

What happens when our bullpen sucks again and Joe Smith is pitching lights out for Minnesota?

What happens when Fernando Martinez and Carlos Gomez form the core of the Twins young outfield in their new ballpark, Gomez is stealing 60 bases, F-Mart's having his breakout year, and all the currently premature Sammy Sosa/Juan Gonzalez comparisons are coming true?

The Twins are high on Gomez

Uhhh....we got Johan Santana?

It doesn't matter though. And the Celtics are actually a really good example of why this trade needs to happen, for either of the packages the Mets and Twins are mulling right now.

Boston traded like 7 young promising players over the summer for Kevin Garnett. It was obviously a sacrifice to make, but the Celtics determined it was worth it, because they would be putting a determined KG on a team with a determined Ray Allen and a determined Paul Pierce, all of them still at least somewhat in their prime. The rest of the team now looks kind of thin on paper, but the Celtics made an executive decision to put the core in place and worry about everything else later, because everything else would inevitably end up being less of a big deal than getting that strong core set. Rajon Rondo is running the point for the Celts. But what's their record?

That's right, it's 17-2, and the Celtics are going to coast to the playoffs as a top seed. What happens after that is anyone's guess, but it's pretty clear that they've built a juggernaut.

Restocking a depleted farm system isn't as hard as it used to be. Between the shorter times that players are spending in the minor leagues and the increase in attention and hype surrounding young players at all levels of a farm system, it's not hard to completely turn your farm around. Look at our own team in 2001. Alex Escobar? Within 2 years, the same system produced Jose Reyes; within 3 David Wright came up.

Look at the Yankees in '04-'05, at the height of their spend first, ask questions later phase. Within 2 years they have two promising pitching prospects, (Kennedy and Hughes) one young phenom, (Chamberlain) and a couple of outfield prospects who are probably overrated but are regarded highly.

Look at the Red Sox, who's farm was pretty barren after the first World Series title in '04. Notice how I said the first World Series title, as opposed to that second one where the youngsters played a starring role - and they also have the chips to acquire Santana if they wanted him as badly as the Mets do.

So with three first round picks this spring, a good draft gets the Mets right back on track. Add that to the potential infusion of rapidly-developing Latin talent that could come with a lot of the kids Omar's signed in the last couple of years beginning to grow up (literally). Add that to the fact that you never know when a minor-league player begins to show some strong latent skills. Add that to the fact that with a solid enough core, the chances of us really lamenting a lack of top-flight talent in triple-A for the next two years are pretty slim.

Sign Livan Hernandez to pitch out of the fifth spot in the rotation and give us innings. Find a market-value replacement for Moises Alou next year. Worry about the bullpen on a year-in, year-out basis, because that's all you can really do anyway. We can probably make this whole thing work for a couple of years until our system comes back.

And it's much easier to make the whole thing work when you've got a top-notch top 3 in your starting rotation with three top hitters in your lineup. Think Boston Celtics. If it stays on the table, this move needs to get made.

(Pics courtesy johansantana.net, nypost.com)

John Maine Likes Women's Clothing

...According the the New York Post's PageSix.com at least. It looks like Maine's having a nice offseason:

The Virginia-born ball-hurler later approached PageSix.com and asked to test-drive our frock as well. "I'm John Maine. I pitch for the Mets! I'm a hot piece of a*s!" he kept repeating. He said that he was on his way to a drag party later that night. "Come on, I'll give you $200 to try on your dress," he begged. "Just to take a picture. It'll be fun."

Apparently this all went down at the grand opening of Touch Nightclub last Thursday night - and no, according to the story Maine did not get what he wanted. But it sounds like our young starter, who usually speaks in short, generic sentences with the media, does indeed walk on the wild side every so often. It's always the quiet ones.

Does Maine not remind you a little bit of Nuke LaLoosh? (That's a Bull Durham reference, for you ignint people out there) You wonder how Maine would fare with Kevin Costner behind the plate telling him to keep his fastball down. I'm pretty sure he's a bachelor - what kind of role is Susan Sarandon playing in his life? Anyway, my point here is that like Nuke LaLoosh, Maine can sometimes lose focus on the mound and seems to at least have the part down about wearing women's clothing. Women's underwear, under his uniform possibly? Who knows.

"Whaddid I do last night?"

Mets Pitcher is a Drag (Page Six)
John Maine Loves the Little Black Dress (Deadspin)

(Image courtesy pagesix.com)

Eli Steps Up, Giants Win Key Game

Eli Manning doesn't play for the Mets. And the New York Football Giants don't play baseball.


Huge win today for Eli and my Giants though, as they top the Bears to show they're not totally imploding, again. 21-16 after 14 unanswered in the 4th quarter, key defensive stand to preserve the victory...this one kind of followed the same arc as that season-changing win over the Redskins earlier in the year. Eli didn't rebound so well in the first half from last week's debacle - he was terrible, actually, with a fumble and two interceptions, one in the end zone - but came on strong in that 4th quarter, tossing a TD and leading the go-ahead drive, all in the last 8 or so minutes of the game.

It almost seems like you can reduce an Eli Manning season to a simple breakdown of three different types of performances:

• There's the total stinker, which he's usually good for about 2 or 3 of. Last week falls into this category, along with the 2005 game against the Vikings where he also threw 4 picks. The December performance against Philly last year, where at the end of an already rough game, on a critical drive in the 4th quarter he threw one of his signature gets-blindsided-and-tosses-up-a-pathetic-floater-of-a-pass interceptions, watched it get returned for an Eagles touchdown, then followed it up with the dopiest of dopey Eli faces, falls into this category. Watch out, because one of these games might just come in the Wild Card playoff at home against the Carolina Panthers - and no we can't let that one go yet, actually, because even when young Eli plays well he still looks like at any moment he could turn into the quarterback that completely embarrassed himself and the Giants franchise on that cool January day. These games, obviously, are extremely frustrating - often unwatchable, actually - but can sometimes be offset by

• The really really good performance, in complete contrast to the total stinker, where he looks like, you know, the genuinely elite NFL quarterback #1 draft picks are supposed to turn into. He takes control of a game, looks a little like Peyton, and throws four touchdowns. The Dallas game on opening night this year would fall into this category, in addition to the Atlanta game in October on Monday night. 1 to 3 of these games each season give Giants fans hope that their team didn't totally screw them in the '04 draft, but more often than not Eli Manning just looks like
  

• Ordinary Eli. He'll be so-so, probably won't win or lose you the game, but might have a chance to win it for you with a 4th quarter surge. He can also totally suck for three quarters before the 4th quarter surge comes around, which bumps his performance up from total stinker to ordinary Eli - see today's game. He seems to have a knack for these random 4th quarter surges, which is certainly a quality you look for in your quarterback, but at the same it's never something you can count on. Often times the way he looks on the field is indistinguishable during these games from the way he looks during the total stinker, but the results are somehow different. The Denver game that he won on that lucky pass to Toomer a couple years back falls into this category. So does the one in Seattle later in the same season where he threw the tying score and set up the game-winning field goal three times but Jay Feely had some trouble ridding his throat of whatever it was he kept choking on. On the losing end, we saw ordinary Eli during the second Dallas game this year, the Dallas loss last year, and the wild-card playoff loss against Philly last year. You can never really predict how a Giants game will turn out during an ordinary Eli performance, as it will almost always depend on how the other parts of the team either prop Eli up or bring him down. One way or the other it never seems to look like he's totally in his element during those sudden 4th quarter bursts, and if he succeeds it's usually on some sort of lucky break, like the Toomer catch two years ago.
  

And there you have it. The Eli Ratio, taken in the same order as the list of common Eli performances (total stinker:really really good game:ordinary Eli) I just generated, has in Eli's brief career hovered around 2:3:11 or so over the course of a season. It's a crapshoot as to how the playoffs will pan out, but you can count on Eli probably being good enough for a decent team around him to win 10 games year in and year out, last year notwithstanding. You figure if the ratio ever moves to about 2:5:9 or even 2:4:10 the Giants might be able to beat the reinvigorated Dallas Cowboys. 1:5:10 or even 1:4:11 could conceivably get them through to an NFC championship game, but until the middle number increases significantly and the first number goes away all together it will be hard to predict with confidence how Eli will be able to carry his regular season numbers into the playoffs and respond to January football. Thus we can't really get a read on when, if ever, Eli Manning is ready to lead the Giants to a Super Bowl. We'll just have to wait and see.

Eli Manning has to become Phil Simms before he can even think about becoming Peyton

It's always interesting to look at Eli, though, because his arrival has kind of coincided with the emergence of Wright/Reyes, and the resurgence of the Mets. Fortunes have kind of coincided as well - Eli, and by association the Giants, have showed enough promise, but crapped out in crunch time in each of the last two seasons. Just like the Mets! Jose Reyes played the baseball version of Eli Manning down the stretch this season.

Wright and Reyes are different players though, as Wright contends for MVP awards and Jose's given us at least some evidence to suggest that September '07 was an unfortunate fluke. With Eli, you're just not sure if he's ever going to make it over that hump. It could really go either way.

I cheer for Eli, but in just about anything except football I think I'd take Wright or Reyes just about any day, across the board. Eli looks like kind of a sissy, so I'd rather let either one of Wright/Reyes have my back in a fight. Eli doesn't really look like he has much game, so I'd probably prefer to go out with Wright or Reyes. You can tell D Wright has that corny-white-boy-turned-Cliff Floyd's-bachelor-prodigy thing working for him - kind of like Sinbad and the President's son in "First Kid" - and Jose's skills in that realm seem to speak for themselves. But Eli? The McLovin of the Giants, maybe...


I guess things did turn out well for Fogell in the end. I'm sure Eli does just fine for himself. If he's half as adept at using bad pick-up lines to talk to girls as he is at using trite cliches to talk to the media, do you have a map? I just keep getting lost in your eyes... probably works out a decent amount of the time for him.

And that's not to say I wouldn't party with Eli Manning, if given the chance.

Eli Manning walks into a crowded kitchen at Amani Toomer's house party. He slides in between Brandon Jacobs and Plaxico Burress, who look annoyed and suck their teeth as Eli passes and moves for the cooler. "Who wants to watch the E-Mann take a funnel..."

But I digress. Ordinary Eli helped the Giants pull out a very important win today. We're 8-4, and back in control of the NFC wild card playoff picture.

And we'll wait with bated breath to see which Eli shows up next week in a key divisional game at Philly. Be rootin' for ya, kiddo...

Eli Bounces Back, Lifts Giants Past Bears (msnbc.com)

(Pics courtesy msnbc.com, louisvillesports.org, rwdmag.com)

Day Two, Still Angry

Ryan Church and Brian Schneider aren't going to be horrible players to have on our team next season.


When that's the best thing you can say about a trade on day two, it probably wasn't too great.

We won't hate Church, or Schneider. RY Chizzle (nope) will figure in a few rallies, get a big hit or two, make a couple nice plays in the outfield, and we'll warm up to him. He'll look stoned most of the time, with his "laid back California demeanor," making it a certainty that he and John Maine will be fast friends. Schneider will be an effective platoon-partner with Ramon Castro, and while getting the majority of starts may just show the world that it is possible for a Mets catcher to throw out more than 25% of would-be base stealers.

You know what? I think I'm kind of going to like these new players. They'll each have a nice little 2 or 3 year run in Queens, which is convenient, because by then Lastings Milledge should be just about entering his prime and showing the Mets how badly they got fleeced long-term with this deal.

This isn't as horrendous as Kazmir/Zambrano, as some fans are suggesting, because in all likelihood Ryan Church and Brian Schneider aren't going to totally suck for parts of roughly a season before running off the field in unbearable pain.


What irks me more than anything else about this trade, though, is how uncreative Omar Minaya was in making it. It's being billed by it's proponents and the Mets' PR department (roughly the same crowd on this one) as a move granting the Mets "additional roster flexibility," a real need-filler.

But, and I pointed this out yesterday, Omar Minaya couldn't have demanded a Jon Rauch in this deal? Really? We just traded our former top prospect and we couldn't have squeezed even Ray King out of it?

Oh yeah, that's right, we got Brian Stokes and his 7.whatever ERA from those pesky Rays. Bullpen problems: solved.

If this move had included a middle reliever, I might just be in support of it. Former top prospect with diminished value who will probably turn around and exceed unrealistically low expectations for three solid, mid-level major leaguers who address immediate needs on our team? Not bad, creative. Omar's trying to make things happen.

But instead Omar just made things happen by letting Jim Bowden take him out to dinner and a movie and never call him again.

****

Scene: Two office settings, one in Washington, DC, one on a Mets team private jet, en route to New York from the Domincan Republic, where Omar Minaya has just spent the past 2 weeks watching 17-year olds learn to hit curveballs. Minaya calls up old friend Jim Bowden, who's been salivating for weeks at the chance to steal Lastings Milledge from the Mets in exchange for two players the Nationals have determined they can live without. Jim's expecting Omar's call. The phone begins to ring in Bowden's office.

"This is Jim Bowden."

"Hi Jim, it's Omar."

"Omar! My man! The Big O! The Minayanator! What can I do for ya?"

"Well, I was wondering if perhaps you might be ready to do that deal we talked about..."

"Ahh, you're finally ready to pull the trigger on Milledge, eh? L Millz, as the kids are calling him these days. Knew you'd come around eventually. He'll fit right in in DC. Now, who did you want?"

"Well, I know we talked about Church and Schneider, but I wanted to ask if it might be possible to include a middle reliever. Rauch, maybe? Ray King? I know you're not going to give us Chad Cordero, sorry for asking last time. But anyone you might be able to offer would be greatly appreciated. It's just that we really need bullpen help and, and, we're a little thin in that department, and Duaner Sanchez is kind of lazy so he's no sure thing and, and...you know what I'm sayin'?"

"Yeah, of course Omar. I know what you're saying. And I'd love to help you out. I just don't know if that's possible right now. We do want Milledge, but I'm not sure if we're willing to part with anything else. Quite frankly, you're lucky I even threw Church into that offer. But I know how much you like him and all..."

"Well, when do you think you'll know? Billy Wagner's angry. I need to do something quickly."

"Let me get back to you Omar. I have to talk it over with Jesus Flores - sorry. And Manny Acta - okay, I'll stop. Can I give you a call back later today?"

"You know Jim, I'd really like to do this right now. Give me Schneider and Church and it's cool."

"You sure Omar? I don't want to take advantage of you or anything..."

"Really Jim, it's okay. The fans are going to love me. They love everything I do."

"Okay, man. It's your job..."

****

And that's how the Mets got Brian Schneider and Ryan Church. Two average major leaguers in exchange for a former top prospect who's still got a high ceiling despite some manufactured "character issues."

Really? We couldn't have gotten Jon Rauch? Really?

(Pictures courtesy media.philly.com, cantstopthebleeding.com)