Sell the Farm?

If a Johan Santana-to-the-Mets deal actually ends up going down, it will probably look a little something like this:

BLOCKBUSTER TRADE

Mets get - Johan Santana
Twins get - Entire Mets farm system

Alas, the great dilemma. And upon hearing the news that other teams do actually think highly of their team's prospects - one in particular who happens to be looking to trade a 28-year old 2-time Cy Young award winner - Mets fans are tied in all sorts of knots and aren't quite sure what to think.

Yes, the Twins like our prospects. They like them so much that they're demanding at least 5, it looks like, in return for their ace pitcher. Metsblog added the following tidbit this afternoon, via Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated:

‘The Mets offered different packages of prospects that included either outfielder Carlos Gomez or outfield prospect Fernando Martinez but not both, declining to include the one extra prospect the Twins requested to clinch the deal according to people familiar with those talks.’

With a package including only Gomez, the Twins reportedly want 4 pitchers. No word on specific players, but you can bet that the four would most likely consist of the Twins' choice between Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Joe Smith, Aaron Heilman, and Deolis Guerra.

Essentially, it looks like we either give up both of our remaining outfield prospects, or 65% of our young pitchers of value who are anywhere near being major-league ready. It's a decision to make.

Which is why I'm not screaming at Omar Minaya for not getting this deal done. I think that if this trade is possible, it needs to be made and we need to give Johan Santana every dollar that he requests, but there's a big decision to make here that's not necessarily easy.

Imagine a core for the foreseeable future of Santana, John Maine, and Oliver Perez in the starting rotation, with David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran in the everyday lineup. That's only a hair over 1/5 of a full team, but it's a pretty formidable core. That's the type of core that, filling the blanks in with people who need only be able to throw and catch, pretty much makes you good no matter what. Think this year's Boston Celtics.

And we're 5/6 of the way there. But Santana's a pretty key part of that equation.

On the flipside, what happens if we need a 5th starter at any point this season. It's Lima time, baby!

What happens when our bullpen sucks again and Joe Smith is pitching lights out for Minnesota?

What happens when Fernando Martinez and Carlos Gomez form the core of the Twins young outfield in their new ballpark, Gomez is stealing 60 bases, F-Mart's having his breakout year, and all the currently premature Sammy Sosa/Juan Gonzalez comparisons are coming true?

The Twins are high on Gomez

Uhhh....we got Johan Santana?

It doesn't matter though. And the Celtics are actually a really good example of why this trade needs to happen, for either of the packages the Mets and Twins are mulling right now.

Boston traded like 7 young promising players over the summer for Kevin Garnett. It was obviously a sacrifice to make, but the Celtics determined it was worth it, because they would be putting a determined KG on a team with a determined Ray Allen and a determined Paul Pierce, all of them still at least somewhat in their prime. The rest of the team now looks kind of thin on paper, but the Celtics made an executive decision to put the core in place and worry about everything else later, because everything else would inevitably end up being less of a big deal than getting that strong core set. Rajon Rondo is running the point for the Celts. But what's their record?

That's right, it's 17-2, and the Celtics are going to coast to the playoffs as a top seed. What happens after that is anyone's guess, but it's pretty clear that they've built a juggernaut.

Restocking a depleted farm system isn't as hard as it used to be. Between the shorter times that players are spending in the minor leagues and the increase in attention and hype surrounding young players at all levels of a farm system, it's not hard to completely turn your farm around. Look at our own team in 2001. Alex Escobar? Within 2 years, the same system produced Jose Reyes; within 3 David Wright came up.

Look at the Yankees in '04-'05, at the height of their spend first, ask questions later phase. Within 2 years they have two promising pitching prospects, (Kennedy and Hughes) one young phenom, (Chamberlain) and a couple of outfield prospects who are probably overrated but are regarded highly.

Look at the Red Sox, who's farm was pretty barren after the first World Series title in '04. Notice how I said the first World Series title, as opposed to that second one where the youngsters played a starring role - and they also have the chips to acquire Santana if they wanted him as badly as the Mets do.

So with three first round picks this spring, a good draft gets the Mets right back on track. Add that to the potential infusion of rapidly-developing Latin talent that could come with a lot of the kids Omar's signed in the last couple of years beginning to grow up (literally). Add that to the fact that you never know when a minor-league player begins to show some strong latent skills. Add that to the fact that with a solid enough core, the chances of us really lamenting a lack of top-flight talent in triple-A for the next two years are pretty slim.

Sign Livan Hernandez to pitch out of the fifth spot in the rotation and give us innings. Find a market-value replacement for Moises Alou next year. Worry about the bullpen on a year-in, year-out basis, because that's all you can really do anyway. We can probably make this whole thing work for a couple of years until our system comes back.

And it's much easier to make the whole thing work when you've got a top-notch top 3 in your starting rotation with three top hitters in your lineup. Think Boston Celtics. If it stays on the table, this move needs to get made.

(Pics courtesy johansantana.net, nypost.com)